Kalshi and Polymarket are supposed to be efficient markets. That means the price of a position is supposed to match its actual probability of it going to $1. In other words, 1 in 100 $0.01 positions should 100x to $100.
That means, roughly, if a million people test their luck 3 times each on a 100x bet with $1,000, one will end up with $1 billion and the rest will lose their money.
In the US, about 1 in 10 million people become billionaires each year. That makes sense if 1 in 10 Americans attempt a wager like this once per year. I am guessing that that is decent estimate of the percent of people willing to triple risk $1000 in extreme bets per year. The moderate correlation between super-wealth and intelligence probably comes from intelligent people having more prior resources to gamble with, and probably less-so them picking out underpriced bets. In general the bets are never that underpriced and our billionaires clearly aren’t psychics, so it’s best to avoid god of the gaps speculation that their secret genius resides in their ability to pick underpriced assets.